Reading the Polls on Same-Sex Marriage

Ballot measures on same-sex marriage and civil unions—some allowing, some banning—have become regular battlegrounds in the fight over marriage equality. Since 1998 nearly every state has put the legal status of same-sex couples to the vote, and both sides have become practiced at the rhetoric of these campaigns. This 2010 study by Patrick J. Egan, Ph.D. of New York University looks at polling data from these campaigns to determine how well polls reflect the ultimate election results, and how much voters were swayed on the issue by the campaign.